The Everest of Confirmation Bias

I don’t know precisely when it happened, but it happened.

I’m not sure if it was one moment, a series of moments, or a gradual erosion that ended with a cataclysmic avalanche, but at some point, it occurred and was forever set in stone.

The start of an avalanche can be hard to pinpoint, but its consequences are not

What am I talking about?

The point at which all political arguments related to Covid-19 became completely unresolvable. Because make no mistake, at this point, that’s exactly what these arguments are: Unresolvable.

The reason?

The greatest case of confirmation bias in the history of the world.

Confirmation bias is a complex phenomenon which can be defined in different ways, but it basically means that once people make their minds up about something, they not only won’t change them, but they will seek out only evidence which seemingly confirms their convictions and then cling to that evidence, even if counterevidence is presented which thoroughly disproves it.

In other words, as a matter of human nature, once people dig their heels in on an issue, no matter what new information they are provided with, they will simply dig their heels in even further to defend their initial position.

If you’re thinking ahead, you can see why this creates a dilemma for writers like me.

No matter what stance I take, opponents will say I am guilty of confirmation bias. No matter what stance my opponents take, I will claim they are guilty of confirmation bias.

And that’s exactly where we are at and always will be at when it comes to the politics of Covid-19.

Yup. That's how it works.

For whatever reason, the feelings people have about how we should handle Covid-19 became so intertwined with their own self-worth, that at this point, they have ceased to be just feelings.

They are now core convictions that people cannot separate from their very essence. If you disagree with me about Covid, you’re no longer attacking an opinion, you’re attacking me. Worse than that, people have placed so much effort into proving their viewpoint is correct, that to give up on it now, despite evidence which might support that they should, feels like a fate worse than death to them.

You see, no matter what evidence comes out at this point, no matter how this all plays out, the two sides of the argument are written in stone and will never waiver.

One side primarily believes Covid-19 is a disastrous, pandemic level issue which can only be solved through government intervention, the other primarily believes it is a real issue, but one that was vastly overblown by the media for the sake of specific political purposes.

Sadly, we have reached a point of no turning back. The argument is too emotionally charged at this point. Both sides will of course claim that if the evidence changed then their opinions would change, but they won’t. Anyone who says that doesn’t understand the power of confirmation bias.

The politics surrounding Covid-19 have become so ingrained, so visceral to the nature of those discussing them, that an agreement on what Covid-19 really was will never be reached.

Anthony Fauci could literally come out tomorrow and testify, in tears, under oath, that Covid-19 is not as serious as it was made out to be and that it was propagated in the manner it was to promote specific political agendas, and certain people on the left would still wear masks in their cars every day and be begging for booster shot number six. That’s because it’s not about Covid-19 anymore. It’s about an unstoppable train of confirmation bias that came off the rails long ago.

At this point, people would rather be right about Covid, than do what is right for our society concerning Covid. And that statement applies either way, regardless of your politics.

Is being right more important than doing right?

So where do we go from there?

I honestly don’t know. And don’t think that I don’t get the irony of this post. It’s a writer writing that what he writes can’t change what people think is right. And yet, I still write. I guess I just believe people need to speak up for what they believe, regardless of whether it will make a difference or not. But more than that, I just wish our culture’s perceptions on general disagreement would change.

Stop villainizing people for having an opinion different from your own. More importantly, stop forcibly altering the lives of people who have a different opinion from your own. If a political idea, ANY political idea, is as divisive as Covid-19 and has a relatively equal number of people on both sides, it probably means we don’t know as much about it as we think we do and we need to calm down.

I’m fine with calming down. I’m fine with limiting massive, society altering decisions under the premise that we just aren’t sure about everything yet.

But what do I know? It’s all just confirmation bias anyways, right?